peace in the middle east. >> they have secretary clinton along side egyptian president mohamed morsi announcing a cease fire. >> stocks that keep going down. >> you have to be thankful for shorts that keep on giving. online shopping. >> what is better? shopping in a store or online. one lucky turkey who president obama decided not to eat. >> live from the nasdaq market site i'm melissa lee. as microsoft and others make the big advertising push who will come out on top? penny's in play? the traders separate fact from fiction. guy goes shopping.

he is going old school. we get a special report on why going to the mall isn't obsolete. let's get to the top story and that is a market reversal we saw today on the israel hamas cease fire. oil on the rise. why are they rallying and how relevant is peace in the middle east at this point? because trading oil wasn't that decisive. >> it was decisive in the beginning. really when everybody realized it wasn't so much of a cease fire. they shoot bombs. >> celebratory shooting. >> that was good. it is very important because it's not just about a small little and this isn't a small dispute. it is not just a small piece of land. it is bigger than that. it is with israelal and iran.

that is what you have to worry about. this is not done over there. it is definitely something you need to pay attention to. oil reversed and closed higher today. the oil market does not believe this is over. >> at the end of the day it doesn't matter that iran is far from israel. therefore if iran gets into the conflict how would it get into the conflict and would it disrupt supplies and is it a contained battle? >> i think people are focusing on the iran part. if anything is in place where maybe we have gotten to a place where iran is ready to give in. that meant more supply coming into the market. the iran, syria, that part of the world is still volatile. i think as much as people are relieved by cease fire announcements the move over the last couple of days is not a middle eastern move. it is an oversold market.

the s&p as of four days ago rallied small. if you look at the technicals on the fixed income market. the ten year is giving back 11 or 12 basis points. to me this is case where we got 45 to 50 points that is a relief. your major resistance level, i think i would be adverse to at least moving higher on the move. i think you have to look for real move. i don't believe you have extinguished the fire in the middle east. if those are the things that had you rallying i would be cautious. >> i don't think anybody that trades commodities wants to be short a commodity like crude oil into thanksgiving with the possibilities of more bad things happening. in terms of the s&p i think we have done a decent job on 1379

the land in the sand held there. on the way back up we are through it. i think we can trade from the long side using 1379 is the level. i think by tuesday or wednesday you see the reversal again back down. i think we will trade back down. >> congress is back in session. we mapped it out a bunch of times on the show. it has to be voted on my congress and it has to be passed by the first of the year. >> i think most people rpant believing that there is going to be a grand bargain. >> s&p tells us if it is short ball game you are going to wind up getting another downgrade of u.s. debt. they already said that headline last week. we know if it is a short gain we are going to see -- >> if the short game improves a

big down payment on the trillion plus that could be enough to stave off s&p for now. >> one an s&p downgrade really wouldn't be that big of a factor. there is a shortage of relatively safe assets. if you think the u.s. is going to default there are several other countries that are first in line. >> last time we had the downgrade you saw the s&p fall off a cliff. it fell off before it. >> everybody knows that. everybody is expecting it. it is already in there. and especially since you have japan with the issues. people are looking for safe assets. china and japan are no longer buying. there is definitely demand. i'm not saying that they go to half a percent. i would be concerned about the fiscal cliff. >> and the feds shown that they

have a lot of demand. >> whether it is deal or no deal let's bing in chief economist and strategist. good to see you. >> thanks for having me on. >> it is hard to believe there is a fiscal cliff proof portfolio but you have somehow put it together. part of that is dividend growth. >> it's the past tax shifts at a lingering impact. there could be a pack. what matters the most is what the fed is going to do. if the fed is going to keep interest rates close to zero for at least the next, say, three years that is going to continue to push the income equity segment of the market higher

over time. i think the one thing that the fed has done, the fed can't control corporate earnings. they have taken a lot out of the markets. i think the strategy that we have we don't have clarity. it means long short strategies are going to make imminent sense. it will remain very good places to be and i think it will look better after tax than if we were getting cash. >> we have people reaching for gold at this point. you like the gold minors. you say they are cheap which we don't often hear. >> one of my grandmother's favorite lines. the gold mining stocks, the only other sector that destroyed share holder capital more than

old mining stocks have been airlines. they are trading cheaply. the point on the fed is that real interest rates will remain negative and gold is heavily correlated with real interest rates. i thought gold and gold mining stocks are the place to be. >> do you think the fed will step in sewing that there will be a gap on fiscal policy, that the fed will stip in and embark on an easing program to provide a stop gap measure? >> i think that we know that operation twist terminates it. i think the fed is probably going to replace that without unsterilized buying. i think that is going to increase the allure of long-term bonds.

i think at the same time it will keep spreads and corporate bonds relatively attractive. i continue to think that long short strategies within the fixed income market, these are hidden gems. i have taken a real bet on the direction of the economy. you are just playing these continuously although they have come in from where they were. we know that the corporate balance sheet is in good shape. let's take a look at whatever silver linings there are. although the earnings outlook is muddled you are buying equities and staking a claim. balance sheets are in great shape and you are getting paid to be in that class. >> always great to speak with you. >> thank you.

also within his fiscal cliff proof portfolio farmland. >> cattle prices hit an all-time high today. the cost of feed stock has gone up. i think it is a very good trade. i think you have a lot in the trade and we have seen that the prices have been heavy here. those trades have not worked. >> let's get a market flash hewlett-packard falling. >> higher by nearly 2% today. even after several firms downgraded the stock following the rough ride yesterday that came after an 8.8 billion dollar write down. h.p. says there were serious accounting impropriities while

autoonomy says the company was destroyed by mismanaging at hp. >>. we are still short hewlett-packard. this is a board that i think needs to do rigorous self examination. until we see a mobility or tablet strategy this is a company that will continue to be what we call a value trap. >> what are the options markets saying about where hewlett-packard goes next. >> yesterday some might have been thinking they would try to kitchen sink it trying to set the hurdles so low it would be easier to step over it. traded much above the average daily volume yesterday and on a day that was very light we traded 30% less. call volume did trade about two times. i think people are making

cautious but speculative upside bets. >> would you weigh in? >> there are plenty of other places to put your money. >> you have to be ready for the bigger names. this is where the biggest chunk goes out of. you will see the big names sell off and i would rather be there. coming up next it is black friday's big three. stick around to find the three retailers that are best positioned to win the holiday shopping wars. and our earnings today. we'll take a deeper dive and tell you what to watch for. stick around. [ male announcer ] how do you trade?

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fact or fiction? rumors that the retailer is ready for a leveraged buyout. we asked fast or fiction will jc penney be taken private? >> that is always a possibility. there is no way to quantify it. you have to base it on its own merts. if you think the turn around story is still in fact and a lot of people have lost their faith. technicals alone i think i would dabble in the stock a bit. >> dabble. >> sometimes you want to do it. sometimes you feel like it. >> there is no way of quantifying except for the investor letter saying the company was approached by one of

the most well respected private equity funds. that certainly ads adds a little bit. >> i think it does but it wasn't a week ago we were talking about the fact that jc penney might be a growing concern. it may happen. it may -- you would have to get them involved. the one thing it would do is take out the public pressure both on ron johnson and acman to get this thing moving. >> i think fast. >> we talked about folks. best buy. so fact. whatever that is. >> black friday just days away. let's get the winners and losers.

joining us is jan. you came away from your trips to the malls with three retailers that will come out on top. >> i think macy's is going to be on top because they are best in class. i think they are running a department store as well as anybody has run one. i think wal-mart will come out on top. i like the sales they have done. i think they are a really good one. i also like aeropostal. i like american eagle because they look great. a and f gets the who knew they were going to go to real fashion? all three of them could do well. if i was just going to do one i like aeropastle.

>> a lot of these you are talking about the clothing retailer but macy's sells more. are you seeing trends outside of clothing that you could maybe take from macy's and look to other retailers maybe like a best buy? >> i actually like right now both best buy and penney. that is really because i was negative on penney. the stock is so low that i don't believe they are going broke. if you believe somewhere a couple of quarters from now they can go positive on comps which i believe about third quarter of next year i like them. i like best buy because i think there is a possibility of a buyout and turn around. i like the new management and they are pretty beat up, as well. so there are reasons to like any of those. if you are just looking at

christmas and holiday we are going to see better sales in apparel than a long time. the mini ipad is half the size, 60% of the functionality and all the price of an ipad. there is really nothing out there. the thing to be looking out is apparel. macy's will do an enormous job. >> american eagle, this was a play based on a new ceo coming in in january. do you think it is out of steam here? it looks like it is rolling over on momentum. what helped it was the lack of european exposure. >> i think they look the best of the three as. a lot of that is recognize.

if they can keep delivering great new product which they seem to be doing they can be a big winner. a lot of it is your timing on the stock. american eagle still looks the best. i'm not sure they are the best stock play. >> good to have you. i'm sure it will be a busy weekend ahead. >> gps. you didn't think i was going to say that did you. i'm full of surprises. even with the move we have seen. >> the stock is down substantially off the highs in the 77 range. these guys i think are going to nail black friday. they are offering incentives for people in the stores. i would watch wal-mart to

rebound. we kick it off with a drop for saint jude. >> there is an investigation going on in their california factories saying there might be issues there. if you are in this still you need to get out. >> drop for mosaic. >> i think the prices can go down further. >> pop for chipotle. >> the stock has been rough. valuations still stretch. look at the price action in jack in the box the other day. i would rather own jack. >> letter x a pop. >> the season ality is a bullish catalyst. it is due to take place next week. i bought steel letter x today based on the trade. >> and a pop for sales force.

>> they feed on earnings. for share holders you better hope they are. it is an increase from here. even then the company would be trading about 20 times 2018 estimated earnings. i think that is pretty rich. i think i would use this as a selling opportunity. >> we have a pop here for taking it to the hoops. >> a sophomore has done something that has never been done before, score 138 points in a basketball game. he took a shot every 20 seconds for a total of 108 attempts. nba star kevin durant praised the kid. >> somebody should have gotten that kids' face. >> there is no way to get in his face.

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welcome back to "fast money." let's take a check of shares of facebook rallying more than 5%. this is its highest price we have seen in nearly four months. looks like investors are beginning to believe that facebook can grow its revenues. the stock is up over 20% since november 13, the day before its most recent lockup expiration. sometimes traders hit it out of the park and sometimes they swing and miss. let's play the good, the bad and the ugly. >> is that in reference to the prom picture. >> bk went searching for a trade on yahoo. >> i think it can be a buy here at yahoo. the down side certainly limited.

and marissa mayer laid out a planeralty trying to build up the search. >> stock is up more than 18%. >> that was a good one like my prom picture. >> i think there is a floor on yahoo. and i think you will still be all right. on to the bad. >> whirlpool's earning's story. >> second day in a row big pop. it looks like a blow off top to me. >> stocks rallied 7%. >> my hair looked like it was going to blow up. i think the important thing is always use stops in here. it wouldn't have been that bad of a loss if you lived to trade

another day. looking at it today i still think this goes lower. that's a judgment call. there is a good and bad. >> i pointed this out. each day something ugly happened. >> how about your shirt today? >> that's perfect. >> the ugly. >> done. >> at least we did it for tonight. thank you. >> you going to somebody else's gym and say that. >> you insult your waiter, too, before he serves food. >> is deere signaling bad news? the biggest drop since the last earnings report in aug. sam allen says the company remains well positioned to carry

out growth plans. in asia deere says that conditions there will continue to be troubled because of higher interest rates, lower crop yields and policy uncertainty. is this bad news? can we connect the dots? >> it goes in concert with other things we have heard. deere is 60% u.s., 40% foreign. they are trying to be more than 50% by 2018. what we have heard out of china. the farm equipment and the ag is much better than the construction business. deere reaffirmed 4% to 5% growth. north america and canada are flat. between that, the inventories and the fact that china says they are cutting taxes on iron ore producers tells me it will be in supply again. i am worried about the resource

trade that we have traded pretty well and define trade versus investment. to me it has been trades and decent for the last month and a half. i think it is still just a trade. deere to me says it is not time for the investment yet. i think we are cautious. >> to tim's point deere is catching up to what -- >> because i was mean to them. >> you deserve it. >> i can talk over that. >> i shouldn't have done your makeup either. >> by the way folks at home melissa lee did all of our makeup. >> i don't think they heard you. let's head to break. the show rooming effect. bricks and mortars biggest nightmare. guy did on the ground research

and he is revealing his results. it could be the biggest battle of his holiday season talking about the tablet wars. [ male announcer ] this december, remember -- you can stay in and like something... or you can get out there and actually like something. the lexus december to remember sales event is on. this is the pursuit of perfection. [ female announcer ] today, it's not just about who lives in the white house, it's about who lives in the yellow house, the green, and the apartment house, too. today we not only honor the oval office, but we honor the cubicle, and the home office as well. because today it's about all of us. and no matter who you are, you're the commander-in-chief of your own life. ♪

welcome back to "fast money" on this thanksgiving eve. we are at the nasdaq market site. we asked the question is it better to shop from the comfort of your couch or better to go to the mall. we sent our guy out to pound the pavement to find answers. here is what he found. >> why come to the mall on a beautiful day and what are you shopping for? >> we are looking for a dres for one of my granddaughters. >> i came in here to get a product for an ingrown toe nail. >> what is better shopping in the store or shopping online? >> i don't like to shop online. i like to see what i'm getting and feel what i'm getting. >> it is easier and faster. >> you run out and in ten minutes you get what you want. >> if you go in the store you

can try the clothes on. >> online you can't touch it. you only see it. you can't examine it. >> exactly what are you talking about. you ever bought anything online? >> yes. >> you can get the product here or go online. >> do you ever watch "fast money"? that guy is a good looking guy. >> that's you. >> that is me. >> back to you. >> how did you not take reg s' job. >> what a natural. how did he do on the ingrown toe nail cream. >> people tell you anything. that guy went to target. >> he is only human. >> they are painful. >> what did you find? >> most people like to go to the stores. >> the results are skewed because you are in the parking lot of the store. >> that is why you went to harvard and i didn't.

still mastercard and visa. if you want to play the retailers shopping that is how you do it. >> clearly there is a lot of steep discounts whether bricks and mortar or online. what is your hunch? >> i think online is much better. i think the way you play it is via amazon. they have a tax issue with every state. it is still the dominant player there. i still like it. you get to feed the ups out of there. >> sure. >> we don't have the footage of when i worked in ups. >> you burned it. >> the staff was paying attention they would put it up. >> stop it. one of the hottest items this holiday season is the tablet. apple, amazon, google, microsoft and many more battling to be number one. who is going to win? let's bring in our guests right now.

cnn.com's executive editor. great to have you with us. >> you go through with with our producers offline the list of tablets to watch for. interestingly microsoft surface is not on that list. why not? >> i think it is a little bit expensive. microsoft has a bit of a problem because with windows 8 we are recommending that people get touchscreen lap tops so you have a situation where people do you get their tablet which isn't a windows 8 tablet or do you get an ultralight. that is a bit of a problem for them. >> it is a branding issue in terms of what the surface is. >> it is a nice piece of hardware but a little bit expensive and the ipad is the dominant player out there. and i see you guys all have ipads up here. microsoft needs to get you some surfaces. >> shake them like an etch a sketch. >> i'm getting one for christmas. >> i'm sure you are. >> let's talk in terms of

dominance you think the ipad with the mini can compete against the likes of an amazon or sam sung even though they are lower price points and better features than apple. >> apple is still the safe bet. there is the apple ecosystem. they still rule the app world. that is where microsoft has a problem, as well. you just have someone to jump into other devices is hard. where the other companies will make the most gains is with the $200 devices, the kindle fire hd, the barnes and noble nook hd and the nexus 7 from google. >> listening to amazon's numbers was bizarre and the way they are all going after each other and the earnings results comparing line by line. it tells you that it is very difficult to distinguish between the products. somewhat lack luster results almost tells you people are waiting for the christmas season to make the big purchase. it sounds like you are saying

the bottom end of the range is where people will go that these are going into the big gift category where before they were significant gifts that were once every couple of years. this is a christmas gift that you can give to somebody. >> some people would get two devices. i would say amazon wins even some someone buys an ipad. people shot on the devices and have kindle books. amazon is one of the players that wins no matter what device. and the other problem for the companies is they are spending so much money marketing these devices and there are razor thin margins on a lot of these things. >> thank you for stopping by. amazon might be the player to watch no matter what they win. would you go there with the valuation that amazon has? >> the value has always been the knock on amazon and they shrugged it off. you have to give jeff a bit of credit. he has done a phenomenal job.

i would still go there. it is not without its concerns. i mentioned the tax issues. >> the tax issues people have shown that they don't care about it. we have seen it. people still don't change the buying habits yet. >> my point. >> you like the samsung. >> and i own google. it is the closest to creating its own ecosystem to the likeness of the apple. they are every place. they give you so many choices. you don't have the one stop shopping with the iphone. you get the phones and everything else that comes along with it. >> everything else? search is the biggest thing. self drive car. >> look at those legs. >> i have great legs. >> that was a few years before. >> now you can really lift the packages. >> it's a family show. >> i meant packages.

>> it's a family show. put a ribbon on that. jane wells joins us with a look at what is going on next. >> nice package, guy. we are going to talk poker, football and if people left their hearts in san francisco where did they leave their brains? we will find out after the break. or that printing in color had to cost a fortune. nobody said an all-in-one had to be bulky. or that you had to print from your desk. at least, nobody said it to us. introducing the business smart inkjet all-in-one series from brother. easy to use. it's the ultimate combination of speed, small size, and low-cost printing. you have to dig a little.

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shares of dreamworks fell today. >> options traders are positioning for further weakness. the most active are the december 17.5 puts which is the bet that the shares could fall by another 8% in a month. analysts were looking for about 58 million over the holiday and maybe as much as 170 million for the picture overall once you start factoring in overseas

sales. any disappointment would be pretty material. >> are you heading to see "rise of the guardians"? >> what is that about? >> i have no eidea. >> no "options action" on friday. >> that's right. >> dungeons and dragons. from mobile devices to medical marijuana you have you covered in the west coast wrap. jane? >> we are going to start east of here. nevada wants online poker made legal and senators are trying to push a bill through congress to do that just before the year ends. the bill could be challenged in court and declared unconstitutional because it could punish too severely. foreign competitors. remember when vegas did not want online poker legalized?

now they do. >> plenty of other companies do. >> caesar's entertainment would be beneficial to them. nice boxes. >> brady bunch. >> if this bill passes it is a huge plus. >> you are moving your chips. >> we are going to talk about espn which might be esp unstoppable. it has landed a 12-year contract to begin airing the college football playoff series in 2014 for a deal which published reports say could be worth $470 million a year but will there be money left to pay pete? >> he is a good looking man. >> he is all hands out there. >> the other gentleman was 4'3".

>> disney in that. >> i think they reported the quarter. the stocks sold off. it is held at 48. if you believe in the tape which i don't but if you do i think disney is very interesting. >> we are all about the fiscal cliff. is there anything else to talk about? i went to fishermen's wharf yesterday to take the pulse of the west coast. >> reporter: do you know what the fiscal cliff is? >> the fiscal cliff? >> reporter: cliff. what is the fiscal cliff? >> i have no idea. >> reporter: so it's a bad thing? >> not necessarily. >> that's the budget. it ends january 1. am i right? and we're just all going to collapse. >> reporter: you're happy about it. >> fiscal cliff.

it is broken down into i saw jim cramer's episode about it. >> somebody knew more on it. i did run into two chicago bears fans who didn't have much to say about fiscal cliff but plenty to say about the loss to the 49ers. >> americans have got to get with the program. >> i think a couple of those guys were -- >> maybe americans are smarter. maybe they are like it is not going to happen. i'm just trying to pay my bills. >> that's it. >> lalalalala. like that. have a great thanksgiving. see you next week. >> you, too. you got to know when to hold them and fold them. we have the final word on stocks with 52-week highs. [ male announcer ] the markets keep moving. make sure the news keeps coming

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sometimes it is tough to buy the losers and sell the winners.

we start with best buy sinking to levels not seen since 1998 after another disappointing quarter yesterday. what do you say? >> i don't know if this stock will ever be taken private. i don't know if that can happen. whenever you get these rumors the stock falls another 20%. >> next up tenant health care reaching a fresh 52-week high. what do you do here? >> we have been on this one. even when they reverse split we say generally speaking we don't like it. here we are 52-week high. coming up next traders are talking turkey and giving thanks for their best plays of the year. stick around. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 when i'm trading, i'm totally focused. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550

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i love that. i like any animation that involves food that moves. >> please don't say happy turkey day tomorrow to anybody. it is like saying tgif. don't do it. >> easy. we thought it would be nice to say what we are all thankful

for in terms of trades that we are thankful for. why don't you kick it off. >> earlier hammered herbal life when he made bearish remarks and the stock fell 33% in four days. the options market was fearful of further remarks he might make. we sold the strangle for $58 and collected all of that premium in just two days when he decided to land base martin marietta instead. that goes, david. >> nice trade. the housing sector has been the biggest trade this year and i am thankful on this turkey day -- that is my favorite one. i still think you might want to take profits here. it is up almost 100% over the last year. investors gobbled this up. >> terrible. >> what do you say? >> do you remember when we were on this desk we were talking

ahead of the first debate and said they would pop based on maybe mitt romney talking about coal in a kinder light. >> you said that. >> is that what happened? it popped 44% in about 18 days. we're grateful for that. >> guy? >> i'm grateful for you folks watching this show coming in our sixth year anniversary. >> is it six years? holy cow. holy turkey. >> netflix we had this thing on the way up. we said short it. they reported earnings around halloween. we said here is a huge opportunity. and then we said it is headed to 84. check out the high today. it has been a great trading stock. >> do you think icon is going to do something? >> does something all the time. >> with netflix in terms of the game plan.

>> call him up on the icon phone. don't ask me. >> tim? >> i'm thankful for turkey and i do mean the country turkey. it is a nice time -- >> you can't make this up. >> turkey is up 40%. it is the best emerging market upgraded. i don't know what is going on because i'm trying to stay focused here. >> you have to look at the screen. it is amazing. >> seeing tremendous structural change. you can stay in this trade. it is not just about the banks. there is major light industrial products doing well here. loving the turkey. >> it is not even like a doodle on turkey. >> turkey is the bird. >> we have been talking turkey a lot and it has worked. >> that is what you are thankful for. we are thankful for you